Morgan Semi Weekly — Issue #1

1. Intel's stock is up 28% in a month. Is the turnaround real?

INTC rallied 16.8% this week alone, pushing the stock to $50 — its highest level since 2024. The catalyst: reports that Intel Foundry Services is seeing stronger-than-expected order interest for its 18A process node, with two design wins from non-captive customers. The market is starting to believe the foundry strategy might actually work.

So what: Intel at 5.2x EV/Revenue is still the cheapest large-cap semi by far. If 18A delivers, this re-rates dramatically. If it doesn't, you're buying a melting ice cube at a premium. The next earnings call (late April) is the proof point.

2. ASML caught in the middle of the US-China chip war — again.

The Dutch government is under renewed pressure from Washington to further restrict ASML's sales of DUV lithography tools to China. Beijing is pushing back hard, and ASML's CEO has publicly warned that over-restriction risks pushing China to build its own equipment ecosystem faster.

So what: China is ~30% of ASML's revenue. Every tightening round forces investors to reprice the China risk. ASML is trading at 15.3x EV/Revenue — a premium that assumes the China revenue sticks around. Watch the next Dutch government policy update.

3. Hyperscaler capex: Microsoft and Meta signal no slowdown.

Multiple reports this week confirmed that hyperscaler AI infrastructure spending for 2026 is tracking at $200B+ combined, up from ~$160B in 2025. Microsoft reportedly increased its Azure AI capacity orders, and Meta is doubling its training cluster buildout.

So what: This is the oxygen supply for NVDA, AVGO, MRVL, and the whole AI accelerator cluster (+7.8% this week). As long as hyperscalers keep writing checks, AI semis keep working. The risk is a capex pause in H2 — but nobody is seeing it yet.

4. HBM demand is outstripping supply. Memory pricing stays hot.

SK Hynix and Micron both indicated that High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) is sold out through the end of 2026, with HBM4 qualification runs starting at TSMC. Standard DRAM pricing is also firming as server builds accelerate.

So what: Memory (+2.8% this week, +30.2% YTD) is in a structural upcycle driven by AI. Micron at 3.7x forward P/E looks absurdly cheap if you believe the HBM cycle has legs. SK Hynix is the purer HBM play but harder to access for US investors.

5. Auto semis are stuck in no-man's-land.

The auto/industrial cluster was a market laggard again — down 7.7% over the past month and -6.3% YTD. EV adoption is slowing in Europe and China, while traditional ICE demand isn't picking up the slack. NXP, Infineon, and Renesas are all in a content-growth-but-volume-stagnation trap.

So what: Auto semis are cheap (NXP at 4.8x EV/Rev, Infineon at 3.8x) but cheap for a reason. The sector needs either an EV reacceleration or a traditional auto recovery. Neither is imminent. Patient investors might start nibbling, but there's no catalyst on the horizon.

Marvell + custom silicon deal: Marvell reportedly signed a multi-year custom ASIC agreement with a major cloud provider (rumored to be Google) for next-gen TPU interconnect chips. Terms undisclosed, but the stock's +37% monthly run suggests the market knows something.

Wolfspeed restructuring talks: Multiple reports indicate Wolfspeed is in discussions with potential strategic partners or acquirers for its SiC fab operations. The company's $800M market cap makes it a plausible takeout target for larger power/auto players (ON Semi, Infineon).

Arm + Samsung foundry partnership: Arm and Samsung announced an expanded collaboration on custom CPU cores optimized for Samsung's 2nm GAA process, aimed at the mobile and automotive markets. This deepens Arm's foundry diversification beyond TSMC.